Scary Chart: Long Term Economic Trends

The Pig Picture published the following charts illustrating a few long term economic trends.


Click for larger version

The Big Picture observes:

• The FIRE economy — Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate sectors — led the growth of jobs over that 2 decade period. Most of these FIRE sectors continue to soften.
• Health Care continues to capture a lot of GDP, and that is reflected in job growth
• Low paying jobs in Leisure & Hospitality is a significant grower
• Manufacturing has been the most negative, shrinking ~5% over the past 20 years. This is the sector that could experience a revival
• Government sector has seen very little growth

Three points to add.

First, our Labor Participation Rate has dropped to pre-1985 levels. And, as illustrated by the above chart, it took 15 years (1985 through 2000) of very strong economic growth to reach the 67% participation rate of 2000. Unfortunately, as illustrated by last November’s election, there is sizable number of people in our population who don’t understand what creates economic growth. Therefore, we are (at least) four years away from even starting to implement pro growth economic policies.

Second, our ‘big picture’ author states Government sector has seen very little growth. While it is interesting to look at the macro picture, knowing the left and Obama’s love for government workers, it would be instructive to look at a more narrow time frame to capture more recent trends. Also, aren’t most teachers paid by tax payers? I’m sure there has been growth in private education, but not enough to be ranked the fourth largest net job creation sector over the last 20 years. (In 2010, Detroit’s single largest employer, was Detroit Public Schools.)

With the implementation of ObamaCare, the “death by regulation” of the healthcare sector is beginning and long term growth is in jeopardy.

With or without the above observations, our long term economic outlook is bad.

  • Jim at Conservatives on Fire January 4, 2013 at 11:35 am

    When the bond market percieves that the US economy isn’t growing fast enough to support all of our borrowing, they will demand higher interest rates and we will be toast.

    • steve January 4, 2013 at 6:29 pm

      And this will happen soon.