Forget Greece. Forget Italy. Forget #OWS. The true looming problem with the global economy is China.
Of course, if you are a regular reader of MCT, you would have read about China’s economic problems over a year ago, including their impending housing bubble. Via CBS Market Watch:
Take a look at the Chinese situation. The bubble has been as big as any we’ve seen. They’ve never seen a housing bust. They assumed it will go on forever.
Ten years ago, homes in Shanghai sold for about six times an average family’s income. Today that’s 13 times. Shenzhen has gone from five times to 14 times. These are off-the-charts absurd ratios. This is a bona fide mania.
And it works fine until the music stops.
Where are we now?
Prices have started falling. Now, fewer than 46 of 70 major cities saw prices stall or decline in September, reports the National Statistical Bureau. As recently as January the number was just 10.
Of course, this isn’t the only problem facing China. They have a credit bubble brewing as well.
What would a housing bust be without a credit bust? This will be the mother of all implosions, too.
In the past two and a half years, China has witnessed a staggering credit bubble. Total lending has come to about $7.8 trillion.
To put this in context, that is twice the entire net government debts of the European so-called “PIIGS” — the troubled countries of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain — put together.
What sort of accountability has there been to all this lending in a single party, Communist-run, Third World economy with little previous experience of credit?
Um…
An alarming report from Schroders said Chinese banking operates in a “twilight zone” of phony accounting and shadow money and it’s all coming apart. “Almost half of all credit creation in China is off balance sheet,” wrote the team at Schroders.
They think this situation could unravel “over the next three to six months,” producing a huge crisis with international implications. Most Chinese banks, they predict, will end up as “zombie banks.”
Again, frequent readers of MCT have read about this nearly a year ago (December 2010) where it was pointed out:
China’s economy is almost entirely based on exports. Mainly exports to the United States. And with Obama and his Democrat henchmen working overtime to keep us economic crises mode, the Chinese economy is going to have a hard time hanging on and continuing to purchase our debt.
If this trend continues, we could be facing a tough economic road ahead.
Mr. Friedman, what were you saying about the enlightened Chinese economy?
